Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Nov 18 13:11:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In these counties, the white share of registered voters fell from 48.1 to 44.4 since 2016--or about the same pace as the overall electorate. So that tells you that most of the decline is due to demographic shifts, not changes in differential turnout by race — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So we have the same basic story as the statewide data, though with the Black share of the electorate holding up somewhat better and a larger decline in the white share of the electorate. This is mainly attributable to demographic changes — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So then there's the big question: how much did this shift contribute to Biden's victory, compared to shifting attitudes? The demographic data alone can't answer that question. You need to know how these folks voted, and so I'm going to go back to the Times/Siena poll — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated