Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Nov 18 13:13:03 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So then there's the big question: how much did this shift contribute to Biden's victory, compared to shifting attitudes? The demographic data alone can't answer that question. You need to know how these folks voted, and so I'm going to go back to the Times/Siena poll — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In these counties, the white share of registered voters fell from 48.1 to 44.4 since 2016--or about the same pace as the overall electorate. So that tells you that most of the decline is due to demographic shifts, not changes in differential turnout by race — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we take the two Times/Siena polls together, here's how voters broke by voter file racial group (here Biden share of major party vote, to fix undecideds): White 43 Black 92 Hispanic 60 Asian 61 Unknown 61 Other 82 Many are pretty small samples! But I think it's reasonable — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated