Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Oct 29 15:23:41 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the same time, we're not going to incorporate this same data on early voting into our turnout model. It's a little weird, but basically we have no equivalent way of boosting the likeliest GOP voters--so letting the Dems bank their vote would create a risk of bias — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In other states, we're not incorporating the absentee data into our estimates, since it creates various risks of biasing our turnout. Here, I think the advantage of improving our models outweighs, since we don't have the alternative measures of partisanship we do elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Finally, and unlike every other state, we might use self-reported 2016 vote for weighting. The rationale is similar: we don't have party registration, so we're looking for alternatives. If we do, we'd weight to self-reported vote in prior NYT/Siena polls of WI--not actual results — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated