Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Oct 29 15:27:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Finally, and unlike every other state, we might use self-reported 2016 vote for weighting. The rationale is similar: we don't have party registration, so we're looking for alternatives. If we do, we'd weight to self-reported vote in prior NYT/Siena polls of WI--not actual results — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the same time, we're not going to incorporate this same data on early voting into our turnout model. It's a little weird, but basically we have no equivalent way of boosting the likeliest GOP voters--so letting the Dems bank their vote would create a risk of bias — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I wouldn't do this if we hadn't already collected such a large amount of data. But we have four prior polls of WI, this poll of WI, and we all the other polls we've done this month. We can do something smart and unbiased (or at least as unbiased as other NYT/Siena polls) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated