Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Oct 29 15:21:33 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In other states, we're not incorporating the absentee data into our estimates, since it creates various risks of biasing our turnout. Here, I think the advantage of improving our models outweighs, since we don't have the alternative measures of partisanship we do elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One different thing in Wisconsin: incorporating early voting into our partisanship models. Unlike other states, WI doesn't have party reg. As a result, we weight on a model of partisanship. These models aren't great! But early voting helps a lot. https://t.co/uqGuNxdwk6 — PolitiTweet.org

We've conducted four polls of Wisconsin over the last year, and we can go back and join them up to some of the abse… https://t.co/0C2GVVz8l1

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At the same time, we're not going to incorporate this same data on early voting into our turnout model. It's a little weird, but basically we have no equivalent way of boosting the likeliest GOP voters--so letting the Dems bank their vote would create a risk of bias — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 29, 2020 Hibernated