Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Oct 24 16:44:36 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's also important think about the difference between what *we* know and what the model knows. We know that there's nothing about this election that will lead Biden to win back the white Deep South. These models don't know that — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Like the first time MS *ever* voted GOP post-reconstruction was... 1964, a Democratic landslide election. IDK. But maybe we should be more cautious about making assumptions about what 1:100 outcomes would look like, when the 1:58 outcome for MS really did kinda look like that — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To take a more recent example, we could probably tell that Obama had truly cataclysmic downside risk in WV in '08 that was negatively correlated in the country. The model didn't know it was any likelier or less likely than usual. But that possibility still has to remain — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Deleted Hibernated Just a Typo