Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Oct 24 16:40:38 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Like the first time MS *ever* voted GOP post-reconstruction was... 1964, a Democratic landslide election. IDK. But maybe we should be more cautious about making assumptions about what 1:100 outcomes would look like, when the 1:58 outcome for MS really did kinda look like that — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I wish Mississippi wasn't the example here. Historically, wild outcomes in MS really have been negatively correlated with the northern-tier! IDK if that's actually relevant in the 538 model design, but it was hard for me to shake https://t.co/c5xX5sCjVt — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's also important think about the difference between what *we* know and what the model knows. We know that there's nothing about this election that will lead Biden to win back the white Deep South. These models don't know that — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated