Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Oct 24 16:38:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I wish Mississippi wasn't the example here. Historically, wild outcomes in MS really have been negatively correlated with the northern-tier! IDK if that's actually relevant in the 538 model design, but it was hard for me to shake https://t.co/c5xX5sCjVt — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Taniel @NickRiccardi @HotlineJosh idk about that; outstanding ballots are r+8 at this point. maybe those folks just don't vote by mail this year, and show up in person. but that's going to make it hard for the late mail to be particularly dem — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Like the first time MS *ever* voted GOP post-reconstruction was... 1964, a Democratic landslide election. IDK. But maybe we should be more cautious about making assumptions about what 1:100 outcomes would look like, when the 1:58 outcome for MS really did kinda look like that — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 24, 2020 Hibernated