Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Oct 22 11:20:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What does this mean in practice? Well, if we weighted on the *census* variable in GA, like most pollsters do or as we often would in states, we would have had Biden ahead. But 32% of our LVs would have been black on the voter file, which is just factually wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This pattern exists everywhere in the South (SC, GA, NC, FL) where we can weight off of voter file-based race: --More self-rpt Hispanic voters than Census (but right amount by voter file var) --Fewer self-rpt Black voters than Census (but right amount by voter file var) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This raises (at least) a few possibilities: --our poll is biased v. IRL pop. We get too many Hispanics, for ex. --our design/format leads to bias v census. Here, we have right respondents but they respond differently in this setting --CPS turnout way overshoots black turnout/reg — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated