Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Oct 22 11:21:25 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This raises (at least) a few possibilities: --our poll is biased v. IRL pop. We get too many Hispanics, for ex. --our design/format leads to bias v census. Here, we have right respondents but they respond differently in this setting --CPS turnout way overshoots black turnout/reg — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What does this mean in practice? Well, if we weighted on the *census* variable in GA, like most pollsters do or as we often would in states, we would have had Biden ahead. But 32% of our LVs would have been black on the voter file, which is just factually wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I can think of ev for all three, to some extent or another. --We know design/questions effect answers (see voter file v. our poll!) --The Hisp. question could be subject to acquiescence bias --We know response rates vary by race --We know the CPS is high on southern turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated