Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Oct 22 11:13:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This pattern exists everywhere in the South (SC, GA, NC, FL) where we can weight off of voter file-based race: --More self-rpt Hispanic voters than Census (but right amount by voter file var) --Fewer self-rpt Black voters than Census (but right amount by voter file var) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now let's compare to the CPS voter reg. estimate for RVs in 2018. Here, it's white, non-Hispanic 61, Black 33 (any race), Hisp 3. Here's our RVs by self-report race again, but here dropping DK for a more direct comp: White 60, Black 30 (any race for comp), Hisp 6. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What does this mean in practice? Well, if we weighted on the *census* variable in GA, like most pollsters do or as we often would in states, we would have had Biden ahead. But 32% of our LVs would have been black on the voter file, which is just factually wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated