Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Oct 22 00:12:39 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If PA wasn't the most important state, we wouldn't have to think too hard about all of this and we could just split the difference and declare, Biden+9 nationally and so on. But it is that important, so parsing out just how good those PA polls really are for Biden is important — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And if you look everywhere else, you've got mix of great-for-Biden-IA-like polls (Q in TX, Fox MI, Civiqs MN/NV) and murkier-PA-like number (Fox and LD in WI, DFP in MI, maybe the Ipsos AZ number), and some in between (like every FL poll) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're really locked into like 90% of our design, but at this stage there are two things that I really agonize over: --weighting on self-reported race --everything having to do with early voting data — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated