Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

Created

Sat Oct 17 15:34:57 +0000 2020

Likes

221

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2: The NV early vote is both really large as a share of the electorate and relatively unbiased. So if the early vote is D+4 or whatever, the final electorate is usually about the same. Again, really simple, but totally untrue in many places. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1: The relationship between party registration and presidential vote has stayed tight there. If the electorate is D+5, they often win by 5! Simple, but it's not true in a lot of places. Worse still, that relationship has changed a lot in many states: your old rules don't work — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are very few places that meet both of these conditions. In some states, like CO, turnout is high enough and unbiased enough that you can guess the final electorate. But the unaffiliated vote has swung so overwhelmingly Dem that reg may not = vote anymore — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated