Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

Created

Sat Oct 17 15:33:56 +0000 2020

Likes

180

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1: The relationship between party registration and presidential vote has stayed tight there. If the electorate is D+5, they often win by 5! Simple, but it's not true in a lot of places. Worse still, that relationship has changed a lot in many states: your old rules don't work — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, it's worth thinking about why the Ralston/NV-based predictions tend to hold up, while it can be embarrassing elsewhere. I think there are two basic reasons https://t.co/dlPNShttcc — PolitiTweet.org

Early vote trends are not going to tell us who is going to win. (Maybe Ralston exception.) If you are tempted to us… https://t.co/or3sTjPlTN

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2: The NV early vote is both really large as a share of the electorate and relatively unbiased. So if the early vote is D+4 or whatever, the final electorate is usually about the same. Again, really simple, but totally untrue in many places. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated