Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Oct 17 15:38:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are very few places that meet both of these conditions. In some states, like CO, turnout is high enough and unbiased enough that you can guess the final electorate. But the unaffiliated vote has swung so overwhelmingly Dem that reg may not = vote anymore — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2: The NV early vote is both really large as a share of the electorate and relatively unbiased. So if the early vote is D+4 or whatever, the final electorate is usually about the same. Again, really simple, but totally untrue in many places. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, that's part of it. I'd add that it's also a really heterogeneous population, so varying underlying trends that might bias another state may be canceling out to an extent here https://t.co/BAWU0FB3YB — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Think it’s harder to have the same level of ancestral registration here as the state has grown so much a… https://t.co/AYDKenfT5F

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated