Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Sep 11 21:49:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even the black turnout of 2008 involves black turnout going from... what 60 to 65 percent. That's a big deal that could totally bias a poll of NC. It's also on a vastly different scale than doubling turnout in TX23 or something — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, I do think there's a lot less reason to be worried about this particular kind of bias in 2020. 2018 turnout surge was truly huge; 2014 was rock bottom, 2020 was a record. It's a real worst case scenario. Presidential elections don't have that kind of shift. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One persistent issue, though, is that Latino voters are straight up likelier to be undecided at this stage. That will bias a poll toward Republicans, all else equal. Not 10 points, of course. But yeah I'd expect it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated