Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Sep 11 21:53:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One persistent issue, though, is that Latino voters are straight up likelier to be undecided at this stage. That will bias a poll toward Republicans, all else equal. Not 10 points, of course. But yeah I'd expect it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even the black turnout of 2008 involves black turnout going from... what 60 to 65 percent. That's a big deal that could totally bias a poll of NC. It's also on a vastly different scale than doubling turnout in TX23 or something — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

TLDR: we can't predict turnout with precision. It can cause certain kinds of biases. There is limited reason to think biases in turnout in '18 will be the same in 20, and therefore there's limited reason to assume the distribution of bias in our polls will follow same pattern — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated