Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Sep 11 21:47:45 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, I do think there's a lot less reason to be worried about this particular kind of bias in 2020. 2018 turnout surge was truly huge; 2014 was rock bottom, 2020 was a record. It's a real worst case scenario. Presidential elections don't have that kind of shift. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For all we know, we'll be biased toward Dems in these same spots in 2020. I'd argue the two AZ polls we've done so far were unusually strong for Biden, v other firms, at those points of the race. What if we have a Dem bias there obscured by high turnout in '18? IDK — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even the black turnout of 2008 involves black turnout going from... what 60 to 65 percent. That's a big deal that could totally bias a poll of NC. It's also on a vastly different scale than doubling turnout in TX23 or something — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated