Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

Created

Fri Sep 11 21:46:42 +0000 2020

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For all we know, we'll be biased toward Dems in these same spots in 2020. I'd argue the two AZ polls we've done so far were unusually strong for Biden, v other firms, at those points of the race. What if we have a Dem bias there obscured by high turnout in '18? IDK — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If it's sampling, then we'd be persistently biased against Democrats in the Southwest. Turnout, on the other hand, can go either way from race to race. We could overestimate Latino turnout in 2022 if Biden wins and be biased toward Dems in the exact same spots. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, I do think there's a lot less reason to be worried about this particular kind of bias in 2020. 2018 turnout surge was truly huge; 2014 was rock bottom, 2020 was a record. It's a real worst case scenario. Presidential elections don't have that kind of shift. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated