Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Sep 11 21:42:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If it's sampling, then we'd be persistently biased against Democrats in the Southwest. Turnout, on the other hand, can go either way from race to race. We could overestimate Latino turnout in 2022 if Biden wins and be biased toward Dems in the exact same spots. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, I'm not saying we should get credit for showing a Heller defeat. But for a pollster, there's a big difference between getting a group wrong because you're sampling them poorly or because your electorate is wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For all we know, we'll be biased toward Dems in these same spots in 2020. I'd argue the two AZ polls we've done so far were unusually strong for Biden, v other firms, at those points of the race. What if we have a Dem bias there obscured by high turnout in '18? IDK — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated