Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Sep 11 21:40:48 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, I'm not saying we should get credit for showing a Heller defeat. But for a pollster, there's a big difference between getting a group wrong because you're sampling them poorly or because your electorate is wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It turns out, maybe not surprisingly, that our polls in all of these places would have been very good, let alone merely better, if we got the turnout right. We would have had Heller behind in NV with the 2018 electorate, for ex. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If it's sampling, then we'd be persistently biased against Democrats in the Southwest. Turnout, on the other hand, can go either way from race to race. We could overestimate Latino turnout in 2022 if Biden wins and be biased toward Dems in the exact same spots. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated