Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Sep 11 21:39:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It turns out, maybe not surprisingly, that our polls in all of these places would have been very good, let alone merely better, if we got the turnout right. We would have had Heller behind in NV with the 2018 electorate, for ex. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Truth is, it didn't really happen--particularly among Latinos. Even weeks before the election, low turnout Latino voters just weren't indicating their intention to vote in the kind of numbers that would move our estimates. They were also likelier to be undecided — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, I'm not saying we should get credit for showing a Heller defeat. But for a pollster, there's a big difference between getting a group wrong because you're sampling them poorly or because your electorate is wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated