Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Sep 11 21:30:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the post-election analysis, the explanation is quite straightforward: we systematically underestimated turnout, and particularly Hispanic turnout. And by a *lot* in some districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a general rule, our polls fared quite well in 2018 but our results in the heavily Hispanic southwest were not nearly so good. Not all of them. But the record there was plainly worse than in the rest of the country, where the average bias was ~0 and average error < 3 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Our turnout estimates have two components, basically: whether voters have a track record of voting, and whether they say they'll vote. Neither got the job done, at least in 2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated