Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Sep 11 21:31:35 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Our turnout estimates have two components, basically: whether voters have a track record of voting, and whether they say they'll vote. Neither got the job done, at least in 2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the post-election analysis, the explanation is quite straightforward: we systematically underestimated turnout, and particularly Hispanic turnout. And by a *lot* in some districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2018 was really tough on the 'track record of voting' stuff, since midterm turnout was wayyy higher than ever before, but especially in CA/TX, where midterms are usually totally noncompetitive and turnout increased by wild amounts. We baked some increase in, but not nearly enough — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 11, 2020 Hibernated