Tweet by @Nate_Cohn | PolitiTweet

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris @On_Politike for me, part of the answer is that this shouldn't be framed as predictive forecasting, but instead as something more like descriptive analytics: a friendly tool to help get a sense of things ("if polls are as good as in the past, then...") https://t.co/qKHVElpEwL — PolitiTweet.org

A minor point from afar on the debates I see about the fundamentals after yesterday's Q2 numbers: the problem isn't… https://t.co/07CcGhL55N

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @On_Politike and to the extent you appear to have any doubts about the representativeness of the past, like polarization, you think you can address it with a more sophisticated model rather than by acknowledging the deeper uncertainty posed by a changing world — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris @On_Politike if you *are* invested in selling your model of N=18 as predictive forecasting, then i think you probably do need to more or less make stuff up. there are smarter and dumber ways to make things up, of course. but is any of it principled, exactly? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated