Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Aug 12 18:44:12 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris it does not seem to me that this kind of uncertainty figures in your thinking. it's not going to come up with out of sample cross validation on N=17. regularization doesn't fix it. but it's there and it's big at N=17 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris i look at this chart and see an example of a model that would have worked pretty well, and now doesn't. to me, it shows the limits of empirical forecasting. things change. you look and it and think you have it solved with a more complex model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris for me, this is the kind of uncertainty that matters most. maybe it's because i read history a lot. maybe it's because i was interested in weather before politics, and see what you can't get here. but none of your tweets or methods seem focused on it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated