Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Aug 12 18:39:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris i look at this chart and see an example of a model that would have worked pretty well, and now doesn't. to me, it shows the limits of empirical forecasting. things change. you look and it and think you have it solved with a more complex model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris one nice benchmark is the number of variables considered with respect to the sample size, and you're talking about an N=17 or whatever dataset! In the absence of strong theoretical principles, you don't have the data to make durable out-of-sample inferences with a complex model — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris it does not seem to me that this kind of uncertainty figures in your thinking. it's not going to come up with out of sample cross validation on N=17. regularization doesn't fix it. but it's there and it's big at N=17 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated