Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Aug 12 18:29:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris one nice benchmark is the number of variables considered with respect to the sample size, and you're talking about an N=17 or whatever dataset! In the absence of strong theoretical principles, you don't have the data to make durable out-of-sample inferences with a complex model — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris As someone who likes MRP, surely--surely--you have experience fitting a model, adding more and more and more variables without meaningful change in fit, but nonetheless get more and more outlandlish predictions on unusual cases — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris i look at this chart and see an example of a model that would have worked pretty well, and now doesn't. to me, it shows the limits of empirical forecasting. things change. you look and it and think you have it solved with a more complex model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated