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Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Aug 12 15:24:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well there are two separate issues here. The omission of approval certainly moves their fundamentals-based forecast to the right, creating more mean revision. Just how much, IDK? But it may also reduce the weight of H2H polls, which are largely collinear https://t.co/cV0K3iypZV — PolitiTweet.org

Tentin Quarantino @agraybee

@Nate_Cohn I get that you have to be deferential before the master but a model that takes the physical dimensions o… https://t.co/8Ckivw1Vx0

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking back through these notes, most are reasons why there might be somewhat less uncertainty, so I guess I take the over on p(Biden). But fundamentally, this forecast thinks about this stuff a lot more like I do than the competition and it'll be fun to watch — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The NYT thing is hard for me to take very seriously, but I would guess/hope that it is not a major factor in adding uncertainty. Historically, it doesn't really do a great job of predicting volatility, after all — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated