Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Aug 06 13:59:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I do think, fwiw, that the few 'good' polls we do have--like the recent Monmouth state polls in IA/GA--feel more consistent with Biden+8 or whatever than Biden+12. So it very well may be that the next 'good polls' show tightening as well. But we don't have that data yet — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Basically, the 'good polls' have been better for Biden than average (which hasn't always been true and may not always be!). When we go without those polls, Biden's lead shrinks as the more prevalent polls, somewhat better for Trump, control the average. https://t.co/DrapQWzacT — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Could you expand on that?

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, many better online polls still show no movement. YouGov, Ipsos and Morning Consult are still at ~9, like in June. Most movement is from outright weak IVR stuff. So it may also be that the live polls come back with Biden+10 again. I don't think that's ruled out either — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated