Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Aug 06 13:57:48 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Basically, the 'good polls' have been better for Biden than average (which hasn't always been true and may not always be!). When we go without those polls, Biden's lead shrinks as the more prevalent polls, somewhat better for Trump, control the average. https://t.co/DrapQWzacT — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Could you expand on that?

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This does have some consequences for poll aggregation, because right now pollster quality is closely correlated with pro-Biden house effects--a reversal from earlier in the year. So right now, these polling droughts shrink Biden's lead — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I do think, fwiw, that the few 'good' polls we do have--like the recent Monmouth state polls in IA/GA--feel more consistent with Biden+8 or whatever than Biden+12. So it very well may be that the next 'good polls' show tightening as well. But we don't have that data yet — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated