Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 8, 2021

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Sun Jul 19 15:41:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, I do think it's reasonable at this stage to stick with your historic prior (slight-to-modest GOP LV edge) over whatever self-report says today (though I do think they're consistent with it). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

5) Self-reported turnout well before an election isn't terribly accurate. I can't find it now, but we showed a steady increase in accuracy in our '18 polling, where voters gradually got better at assessing their propensity to vote. Shouldn't be a huge surprise. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @ben_golub @gelliottmorris i'd take issue with the idea that we're talking about unprecedented events; we're talking about events that didn't happen very often in the 18 election months from 1948-2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated