Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 8, 2021

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Sun Jul 19 15:39:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

5) Self-reported turnout well before an election isn't terribly accurate. I can't find it now, but we showed a steady increase in accuracy in our '18 polling, where voters gradually got better at assessing their propensity to vote. Shouldn't be a huge surprise. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our national poll, for example, the voters with >90% turnout scores (based on vote history), but who *aren't* almost certain to vote: Biden+13, 48-35 R+6 party reg 34-40 More generally, just 53% of reg GOP who back Biden are 'almost certain to vote' — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, I do think it's reasonable at this stage to stick with your historic prior (slight-to-modest GOP LV edge) over whatever self-report says today (though I do think they're consistent with it). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated