Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 8, 2021

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Sun Jul 19 15:35:38 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our national poll, for example, the voters with >90% turnout scores (based on vote history), but who *aren't* almost certain to vote: Biden+13, 48-35 R+6 party reg 34-40 More generally, just 53% of reg GOP who back Biden are 'almost certain to vote' — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

4) One interesting thing to mull: could a bigger Biden lead involve a bigger RV/LV gap, as Biden expands his support into Republican-tilting voters who don't usually vote for Democrats and wouldn't be terribly excited to vote for one? Just a thought. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

5) Self-reported turnout well before an election isn't terribly accurate. I can't find it now, but we showed a steady increase in accuracy in our '18 polling, where voters gradually got better at assessing their propensity to vote. Shouldn't be a huge surprise. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated