Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 14, 2020

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Sat Apr 25 15:05:56 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another thing has definitely changed for the better, at least in some cases: more pollsters weighting on self-reported education; failing to do so was considered major driver of the polling error. Nowhere near all do this, to be sure. But, still more than '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 25, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing definitely changed for the better: fewer undecided voters, esp in the Midwest. So, even if the polls are just as bad, they'd still be more accurate. Indeed, the Midwestern polls today are better for Trump than '16. Many have found him up in WI, for ex., vs. 0 in 16' — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 25, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, there are many things that have not changed. A very substantial share of state polls still aren't adjusting on self-reported education. Virtually none ensure they represent sporadic/low turnout voters, who are stronger for Trump controlling for other demographics. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 25, 2020 Hibernated