Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 22, 2020

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Wed Dec 18 14:33:15 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is hard to evaluate this without more data, especially for the online pollsters who don't publish many hard election results, just national polls. In Morning Consult, their '50 state estimates' lead me to think the issue could be specific to rural whites (NE!) but idk. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Alternately, one could argue this is the dying breath of live interview polls, which have lower and lower response rates. Here, online polls would say there are very few changing opinions at this point, and the live polls are just catching varying differential response — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The bottom-line: this is a challenge for analysts and the industry. The core tension is that the transition to online polling is happening, but the online polls may still (not necessarily!) be immature. Live interview polls are dying, but often considered the 'gold standard' — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated