Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 22, 2020

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Wed Dec 18 14:36:01 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The bottom-line: this is a challenge for analysts and the industry. The core tension is that the transition to online polling is happening, but the online polls may still (not necessarily!) be immature. Live interview polls are dying, but often considered the 'gold standard' — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is hard to evaluate this without more data, especially for the online pollsters who don't publish many hard election results, just national polls. In Morning Consult, their '50 state estimates' lead me to think the issue could be specific to rural whites (NE!) but idk. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the online polls and live interview polls act in uncorrelated ways, a simple house effect adjustment doesn't do the job. We could split the difference, but there's little reason to assume the average is any likelier than one or the other, and online dominates w volume anyway — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated