Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 22, 2020

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Wed Dec 18 14:14:12 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So what's going on? Well there are some methodological explanations, certainly on individual online pollsters (YouGov's heavier weights should impose less volatility, rightly or wrongly). But most online polls aren't like YouGov and it holds without them — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Notice: --online has basically been higher than live for a year, with online showing no variability --the recent and abrupt 'jump' in the president's approval is exclusively due on the live interview side (we often go weeks without them, so it shows up abruptly here) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another explanation is noise: the low volume of live interview polls means that our estimate of live interview polls is uncertain at any time (I don't think we can be sure that WaPo, Pew couldn't say Trump at 38/58 tomorrow). But the pattern has lasted long enough for me. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated