Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Sept. 22, 2020

Created

Wed Dec 18 14:16:14 +0000 2019

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another explanation is noise: the low volume of live interview polls means that our estimate of live interview polls is uncertain at any time (I don't think we can be sure that WaPo, Pew couldn't say Trump at 38/58 tomorrow). But the pattern has lasted long enough for me. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So what's going on? Well there are some methodological explanations, certainly on individual online pollsters (YouGov's heavier weights should impose less volatility, rightly or wrongly). But most online polls aren't like YouGov and it holds without them — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another possibility is a mode effect, where people respond differently online. But it wouldn't really explain a lack of variance, just bias. It made more sense in '17, though even then it was unproven and the idea that it flipped is tough to stomach. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 18, 2019 Hibernated