Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Notice: --blue has basically been higher than red for a year, with no variability --the recent and abrupt 'jump' in the president's approval is basically exclusively due to an infusion of live interview polls (we often go weeks without them, so it shows up abruptly here) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So what's going on? Well there are some methodological explanations, certainly on individual online pollsters (YouGov's heavier weights should impose less volatility, rightly or wrongly). But most online polls aren't like YouGov and it holds without them — PolitiTweet.org