Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 17, 2020

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Wed Nov 27 22:02:02 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So I think this has some potential to explain some things. If this is generalizable (it may not be), the over-representation of more regular voters would tend to underestimate Dems in Sun Belt (among RVs) and help them in the Midwest — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's Trump approval in AZ/FL by vote history: Voted 2016 and 2018: 50-49 Voted 2016 not 2018: 44-54 Didn't vote 2016, voted 2018: 44-53 Neither: 40-53 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The pattern is pretty easily explained by demographics: nonvoters in the Midwest are overwhelmingly whites without a degree; in the Sun Belt, they're disproportionately Hispanic — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated