Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 17, 2020

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Wed Nov 27 21:58:31 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's Trump approval in AZ/FL by vote history: Voted 2016 and 2018: 50-49 Voted 2016 not 2018: 44-54 Didn't vote 2016, voted 2018: 44-53 Neither: 40-53 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To my knowledge, no public pollster adjusts for this--either in terms of sampling or weighting. Now, here's Trump approval in PA/WI/MI, by vote history: Voted 2016 and 2018: 47-51 Voted 2016 not 2018: 55-43 Didn't vote 2016, voted 2018: 38-61 Neither: 52-45 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So I think this has some potential to explain some things. If this is generalizable (it may not be), the over-representation of more regular voters would tend to underestimate Dems in Sun Belt (among RVs) and help them in the Midwest — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated