Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 17, 2020

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Wed Nov 27 22:03:15 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The pattern is pretty easily explained by demographics: nonvoters in the Midwest are overwhelmingly whites without a degree; in the Sun Belt, they're disproportionately Hispanic — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So I think this has some potential to explain some things. If this is generalizable (it may not be), the over-representation of more regular voters would tend to underestimate Dems in Sun Belt (among RVs) and help them in the Midwest — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We do account for this both on the front-end and by weighting. It's a major difference between us and other pollsters, and I'd say our more surprising results generally line up with this explanation (though it's messy to try and directly untangle the effect of our choice here) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 27, 2019 Hibernated