Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 10, 2020

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Fri Jul 19 19:47:26 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 And we have a more sophisticated estimate, seen on the map as the 'result-based' estimate, which attempts to model the presidents approval as a function of House results, while ironing out candidate specific effects (like an outlier in IA-4). All of it lands on the same answer — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 But just about all of them--and certainly the one used here--are better than giving the Democrats 100% of the vote in one-eight of the state. And we also have estimates that account for incumbency, and that nudges things a little bit--to D+2.5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@haroldpollack @chrislhayes yeah, it is baffling. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2019 Hibernated