Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave Lots of polling like this. Republicans divided, Dems and indies strongly pro aid to Ukraine. https://t.co/1WNm0H7yFM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Granted, voters don't care about foreign policy that much, but the emerging GOP stance on Russia/Ukraine is likely to be unpopular with swing voters and is giving Democrats a free wedge issue where they'll be on the right side of public opinion in 2024. https://t.co/G2A550cUvV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @LodgePokerClub: Fan favorites @marianopoker8 and @andrewneeme play $50/100 with the one and only @NateSilver538 today at 3PM CT. Also… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lxeagle17 Lovr the last post in the thread where she comes thisclose to realizing that maybe the problem is being way way way too online. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know what's causing the spike in adolescent unhappiness, but it's whatever it is it's 1) relatively new) and 2) *not* affecting adults in the same way. So that narrows the range of possibilities. Almost certainly not a perpetual, very adult concern like "job security"! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also surveys show the majority of adults are happy with their own lives—and this hasn't changed much over time)—even if they aren't happy with the direction of the country. https://t.co/ON6EaI2Om9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion Yeah super pro-walkability and I live in the middle of Manhattan but I'm trying to think about how often that I a) randomly run into someone when running an errand and b) make plans to hang out as a result. Not never! But probably a once-per-year type of thing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion Yeah super pro-walkability and I live in the middle of Manhattan but I'm trying to think about how often that I a) randomly run into someone when running and errand and b) make plans to hang out as a result. Not never! But probably a once-per-year type of thing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @kareem_carr: I feel like statistics is the science of knowing how wrong you are. Being less wrong is optional. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MrJesseJames4 Just saw this and it's definitely a candidate! https://t.co/HjCWrCJjWs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2.3 points of vote *share* = 4-5 points of vote *margin* (how much you beat/lose to the other guy by) which is a pretty big effect. The view that "LOL, nothing matters" is sophomoric. Research is very robust that candidates pay an electoral price for extremism. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

https://t.co/EEd5eyXpjB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Perhaps it's truly intelligent enough to not give a shit about stupid Internet drama. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tchanpoker @Andy_Bloch @PhilGalfond Yeah, and I just play quickly in general (a leftover habit from limit hold 'em days). From a metagame standpoint (unless there's a specific exploit I'm going for) I just sort of like sending the message that "of course I bluff sometimes and there's nothing to be ashamed of". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@luckychewy @PhilGalfond I thought that one had a decent chance, LOL, my cards were about as coordinated with the board as you can get without making an actual hand! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PhilGalfond I table my hand super fast even after bluffs and sometimes opponents assume I have it before doing a double-take. Always kind of a freeroll that they'll misread the board and muck their hand. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@moskov @Liv_Boeree @ruben_we I'm saying "finally we have the truth" is often an appropriate tone when the mainstream media openly acknowledges a position it had been obfuscating before. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@moskov @Liv_Boeree @ruben_we I'm saying that if you read mainstream center-left outlets like the NYT or NBC, they presented a skewed view of the literature that greatly de-emphasized the robust findings of natural immunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@moskov @Liv_Boeree @ruben_we Will 100% vouch for Liv that the mere suggestion that natural immunity to COVID was likely to give you pretty good protection would often get you flamed on Twitter for much of 2020 and 2021, even though that always seemed clear from the preprints and peer-reviewed literature. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also kind of interested in the reverse, the ability to spotlight an audience for a tweet, e.g. "only show this tweet about poker to followers who are interested in poker". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How inherently hard would it be to allow you to (temporarily or permanently) mute discussions of certain topics on this site? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin I blame it on NFL teams kicking too often on 4th down. I expect to see some improvements in Philly MSA teens because of the Eagles. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@LPDonovan I think that concern would be bigger if say she was a super left-wing candidate that could win a majority of Ds but would turn off swing voters. But instead the concern is that she doesn't connect well with voters, and that *should* translate between the primary and the general. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheZvi Maybe alternate weeks? COVID is still relatively important in absolute magnitude compared to most of the dumb shit that people argue about. Although so is AI, of course. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Harris's 2020 was awful (entered as a frontrunner, quit before IA), so she'll have to be considerably better to win the nomination in 2024. But conditional on having improved enough to win the nom, she'll likely also be a better general election candidate than people now assume. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah. Winning the primaries is hard, and they serve as a trial-by-fire test of electability and candidate acumen. There tend not to be very large candidate effects in presidential races because few truly terrible candidates survive the grueling nomination process. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

ChatGPT makes for a pretty good "phrase thesaurus". https://t.co/iJXlgpPDXG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd guess that holding the view "the world faces a series of acute and unprecedented crises" is one of those things that correlates highly with political engagement but doesn't tell you much about what a person's political beliefs (e.g. left/right/center) are. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By this definition the world is kind of always in a polycrisis though? I don't think historians will look back on February 2023 and think of it as being particularly polycrisisish. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @tyschalter: I maintain a list of local reporters, outlets, and well-connected people that’s coming in very handy right now: https://t.c… — PolitiTweet.org