Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The polling error 'warning sign' from September has turned off https://t.co/noNbCNhzou https://t.co/2ZkmPcDUKR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On a personal note, I personally wouldn't play it. If there's not a path to generating *good enough* data to allow for unbiased estimation controlling for stable and knowable characteristics, I'm out — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's worth emphasizing, again, that #1 may help the averages this year. But the idea that this is a game people should play and prove they're right... is stupid — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The 'barrier to entry' is low, if you want data that's a combination of 1) broken clocks subject to darwinain electoral selection; 2) people overfitting to their own priors, since everyone knows you can't trust the underlying data — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But this next step--the idea that the trash data is fine and anyone can do it, produce good numbers and look smart is just comically out of touch with what's actually happening here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There is an element of the FiveThirtyEight macro view that has been vindicated: a lot of 'gold standard' type polls have reduced output; GOP firms have flooded the zone in some key states. This may improve the averages, even if the underlying challenge remains the same! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The disparity between the FiveThirtyEight macro/empirical view on polling and the reality of conducting high-quality research right now is outright comical at this point https://t.co/jSLpyy0CDN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What do you think the results will show: --Evidence and explanations/possible solutions for D nonresponse bias --Evidence of D nonresponse bias, but no explanation/solution --No major D nonresponse bias/evidence things are better in 202 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @jbarro @nytimes well, we do have a baghdad bureau and we are paying for this study, so idk what more there is to say — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @jbarro @nytimes idk, is there a financial upside to having a baghdad bureau? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro @nytimes if it was just the financial incentive, it would be cheaper. but there's a lot of expense on mailing. priority mail envelopes are like $9 bucks each. there's overhead on printing and assembling and mailing and data collection / processing etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro @nytimes it does not, at least not yet — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

TBH you should love the @nytimes for it. It's a lot of money for an experiment -- one that might not even be worth a news alert on your phone. I was very clear that we might not find anything. The folks who count still supported it https://t.co/Tpkj4TOT9M — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Previewing our Wisconsin experiment https://t.co/7EOF6Dqlpr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/7EOF6DIuDz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @otis_reid yes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid (and we can do the voter file match on an ABS sample which, while imperfect, gets us a lot of the benefits) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid the voter file here is bad and could be part of the issue — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann i don't think the online panel will involve any recontacting, but that's on ipsos' side / haven't asked — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LPDonovan i do think there's something to the red poll wave in the state polling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pretty clear split between cheap online panel and everything else on the generic congressional ballot right now, with 'Big Village' and Morning Consult taking on the world https://t.co/WSSvYg0s4T — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pretty clear split between cheap online panel and everything else right now on the generic congressional ballot right now, with Big Village and Morning Consult taking on the world https://t.co/WSSvYg0s4T — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MULawPoll: In new Marquette Law School Poll, 50% of likely voters in WI support Republican incumbent Ron Johnson in the Senate race and… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JonHaidt: In real conversations, speakers who frequently spout anger, contempt, insults, and obscenity are shunned. On Twitter, they ar… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the newsletter this AM, a deep dive on weighting on recalled 2020 vote -- including the results of our recent polls with alternative weights. https://t.co/vfLG2cOZH5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: More Republican pollsters flooding the zone to show Republicans ahead. https://t.co/hqeKOECroD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LoganDobson though, right or wrong, we had laxalt ahead despite those issues — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JustSchmeltzer @billscher we ignore that stuff — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende i'm not even sure it's a lie -- they don't want to do it! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende based on personal '16 experience, i also think there's another layer -- not wanting to admit to it yourself bias — PolitiTweet.org