Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JRosenblattTV @neilmcenerney @RepStefanik @RepJohnKatko Delgado would be in the 19th CD, which would go from Biden +2 to Biden +8 or so. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jennymedina: I went to McAllen to understand what's driving the improved performance for Republicans in South Texas. One answer: Hispan… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@pkcapitol That's generous to Rs. The map above would replace the current 19D-8R w/ 23D-3R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@pkcapitol And not just shore up Delgado and SPM, but eliminate Tenney and possibly Katko. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In this hypothetical Dem gerrymander, Stefanik's house would be in #NY19 and Rep. Claudia Tenney (R)'s house would be in #NY22, but they'd have to battle it out in a #NY21 GOP primary to have much chance of survival (and Stefanik would be heavily favored). https://t.co/T80B44O9ms — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JMilesColeman Hah, actually hadn't seen that...but agree — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The cold truth for everyone speculating NY Dems could chop up Rep. Elise Stefanik's district, #NY21: it's way more in Dems' interest to pack her North Country seat w/ GOP voters than to try to dilute it w/ Dem voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In a sign AZ redistricting might be headed in the opposite direction as last decade’s, the tie-breaking commissioner has voted to hire the GOP-preferred mapping firm. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Kinda crazy stat I just noticed in the census: had Idaho gained a third district, its seats would still have more residents than each of Montana's two future districts will have. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@daveweigel And once Manchin leaves, there's no route for anyone remotely like him to win in WV. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The most striking feature of today's politics might be brutal enforcement of ideological rigidity. There just aren't many routes for candidates who don't parrot the party line (e.g., Liz Cheney on the election) to make it past primaries or amass/retain power. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ForecasterEnten: There really isn't a rift in the GOP on Trump. The vast, vast majority of Republicans are totally with him or fine bei… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A reminder that the “target lists” the NRCC/DCCC put out are mostly meaningless posturing until we know how the lines are drawn in each of these states. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A reminder that the “target lists” the NRCC/DCCC are mostly meaningless posturing until we know how the lines are drawn in each of these states. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

https://t.co/pWuuFMjGhQ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting fact: the state that had the biggest percentage turnout increase vs. '16, Hawaii, also saw the biggest pro-Trump margin shift vs. '16. In general, 2020 was a pretty poor election for the theory that demographics will ultimately "doom" the GOP. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's also not a lot of evidence the vast expansion of the electorate in '20 helped Dems or that "shrinking the electorate" necessarily helps Rs. Trump did well w/ less politically engaged voters in a lot of states, and made serious gains w/ Hispanic and Asian voters vs. '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

After Trump came within 42,915 votes of winning reelection despite really high disapproval and losing the popular vote by 7 million+, I think we should all be pretty cautious about the notion either party is on the verge of a "durable majority." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Time to stop pretending there's a viable lane for NeverTrump candidates in GOP primaries (at least, non-incumbents). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the first category, Dems do ok in off-year/low-turnout scenarios b/c those college+ whites are high-propensity voters. A big part of the reason Dems earned such a low % in #TX06? Its newer, nonwhite residents are really low-propensity. Same dynamic last year in #CA25 special. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There is a major off-year difference between districts where attitudinal shifts among college+ whites has been the main driver of Dem vote growth (say, #GA06) and districts where new residents/demographic change has been the main driver (say, #TX06). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's a preview of what #TX06 could look like next November: by purging increasingly Black precincts in South Arlington from the district, Republicans are likely to boost Trump's '20 margin from +3 to +17 or more. https://t.co/f54Tgz2XYJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The DCCC et. al. will get some flak for sleeping on #TX06, leading to this poor showing. But strategically, they were right not to throw away millions: TX Rs will get to redraw it before 2022, so it doesn't matter for the majority. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The most comical aspect of #TX06 is definitely the ratio of media attention given "Big Dan" Rodimer vs. his share of the vote (2.7%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, Dem turnout in #TX06 is pretty bad. But, it also speaks to the fact that no high-profile Dems really rallied around their top candidates. As a result, they might get locked out. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BruneElections And what's the Biden number in your ESL/Springfield/Carbondale seat? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @politicoalex: NEWS - Texas GOP special election candidate Susan Wright has reached out to the feds after being the target of an 11th-ho… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's worth noting IL Dems didn't have great options for shoring up Bustos's district, #IL17. The hypothetical 14D-3R map below features 13 districts Clinton/Biden won by 10%+. But #IL17 would've shifted just two points left, from Trump +1 to Clinton/Biden +1. https://t.co/OQ8nZrneXU — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, this could make it easier to shore up #IL14 Rep. Lauren Underwood (D). But Dems wouldn't really be able to draw a 14-3 map anymore, because other parts of Bustos's seat would have to be sacrificed to Republicans. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One of just seven Dems left in Trump districts, so a blow to Dem prospects for keeping the majority. Now IL Ds will have to decide what to do with her seat in redistricting. — PolitiTweet.org