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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I've seen enough, Chase and Cox are out. The #VAGOP convention is going to come down to whether their supporters prefer Youngkin or Snyder. But Youngkin's initial edge might be too much for Snyder to overcome. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The GOP #VAGOV nomination is Glenn Youngkin's to lose, thanks to huge leads in Fairfax, Norfolk and Henrico/Richmond per @vpapupdates - all places where Rs would need to make serious inroads to win statewide in the fall. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
For background on the candidates & what's going on in VA's GOP convention vote, be sure to read @JessicaTaylor's excellent preview for @CookPolitical ($): https://t.co/xG2WuD1PyN https://t.co/UhPkIXGdhU — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Forget Missouri...I’m so crazy I even think Dems have a good chance to win the Kansas governor’s race. State races don’t = federal. — PolitiTweet.org
Speck Wiley @SpeckWiley
@Redistrict @SeanTrende Wow I’ve never seen Dave so wrong before. At this point this is equivalent to saying a dem… https://t.co/Va3Wg1Tr2Y
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@lxeagle17 The main reason Terry McAuliffe got elected in 2013 was that he wasn’t Ken Cuccinelli — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I’m *not* assuming that NoVa’s anti-Trump moderates are automatically Dem voters in state-level elections. And I think it’s reasonable to assume at least some asymmetrical drop-off in base D turnout w/ Trump out of office. — PolitiTweet.org
Ben Pershing @benpershing
@Redistrict Are you assuming relatively low turnout in the NoVa suburbs/exurbs, while the Trump base stays motivated and shows up?
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Redistrict: @SeanTrende A year after VA voted for Barack Obama by 6 pts, it voted for Bob McDonnell by 17 pts. For a variety of reaso… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@SeanTrende A year after VA voted for Barack Obama by 6 pts, it voted for Bob McDonnell by 17 pts. For a variety of reasons, we’re not going to see a 23 pt swing this year. But I just don’t think we have a good handle on what either party’s turnout looks like in the post-Trump era yet. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Less than 50%, but >25% (except Chase, ~0%). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I think Republicans actually have a good chance to win the VA governor’s race this year. We’ll see. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Reversing Dems' slide among white non-college (if even by a point) was Biden's huge, decisive achievement in 2020 - and I'm not sure a different Dem could hope for 37% in 2024/2028. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I grew up on your columns and will never forget that when this high school junior emailed you out of the blue asking for career advice, you replied within a day and told me to practice my writing and keep studying history. Thanks for the encouragement. — PolitiTweet.org
Stuart Rothenberg @StuPolitics
At age 12, I wanted to become Mickey Mantle. I didn’t know what a political analyst/handicapper was. https://t.co/V6LhcVBd9d
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Also, this video is proof we were way ahead of the @SteveKornacki khaki curve. OTOH, the hair gel and the exaggerated Jersey accent weren't my best choices, looking back on it now. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Thanks congressman, but nothing will ever top your "dancing seniors" ad. https://t.co/e2MIGmnpXY — PolitiTweet.org
Bill Pascrell, Jr. @BillPascrell
Dave belated thank you for the shoutout I hope I played a tiny role in your meteoric rise to the top of the profess… https://t.co/HvLN0qOBp5
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @RRHElections: Dave was an #ET teen 10 years before Twitter existed. https://t.co/0mngQiTIpu — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Time flies. FWIW, the site was the brainchild of David @Wildstein and featured an intrepid young reporter named @SteveKornacki. The hosts of this @News12NJ show were @lauralindseyj and @JimMcqWS. If you're out there somewhere, thanks for the big break!! — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Since age 12, I wanted to be a political pundit. At 15, in the late 1990s, I got my first break writing a column called "NJ Governor 2021" for a New Jersey politics website. Well, I'm not running for gov this fall, but I did just find this old VHS tape... (w/ @RyanJPeene) https://t.co/YGkgLzXZ1a — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Absent primary reform and much higher barriers to partisan subversion of election results, we're a lot closer to constitutional crisis and serious secession movements than many people realize. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
By the way, most legislators I've interviewed over the years privately agree, and would be all too happy to be unshackled from them. That's why this kind of reform has actually taken hold in several states, and holds the most promise for reducing perverse incentives. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
This TedTalk by @katherinegehl gets a lot right. The real reason politics sucks now? Primaries. If more politicians were unshackled from them, 100% DC/state capitals would get more done and we'd be going down a lot fewer absurd rabbit holes. https://t.co/I2Ye9FHDWE — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @NateSilver538: It would the the Congress elected in 2024 (not 2022) that decides this. Nonetheless, it's sort of shocking that Democr… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Big dissonance between Dems, who view this as House Rs replacing someone unwilling to lie about 2020 w/ one who will (accurate), vs. House Rs, who see it is as replacing someone who will distract from bid for 218 w/ one who won't (prob no difference). https://t.co/HeiWfTOFxd — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
NEW at @CookPolitical: all our redistricting resources on one dashboard. See who controls the process, detailed state-by-state analysis, demographic breakdowns, forecast maps, and who's at risk. https://t.co/IaUNKmz1GP https://t.co/8GWTyZVHU2 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@WinWithJMC No, but 19D-8R to 23D-3R would still be a pretty big swing. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Again, this is wishful thinking on the left and not how gerrymandering works in practice. The more likely play for NY Dems: pack Stefanik's district w/ Rs to eliminate Tenney. — PolitiTweet.org
Matthew Chapman @fawfulfan
I wonder if Republicans have given any thought to the fact that Elise Stefanik is in a congressional district New Y… https://t.co/j4jLhal3zv
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @amyewalter: The ouster of Liz Cheney from GOP leadership has everything: Trump, scions, hypocrisy....But, one thing it doesn’t have: an… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In all seriousness, I don't think people spend enough time considering how much further Dems could have fallen in heavily WWC areas if Biden hadn't been the nominee. It's pretty much the biggest pitfall for a different D in 2024/2028. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Can someone get me a Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel breakdown for #Hartlepool? — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New analysis for @CookPolitical subscribers: why #NM01's special is likely to be a much better barometer than #TX06 - and why Albuquerque's soaring murder rate & low turnout make this Biden +23 seat worth watching ($). https://t.co/xdlBY9dWRF https://t.co/k1480DYlOX — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In 2012, Stefanik's district, #NY21, voted 52%-46% for Obama. In 2020, it voted 54%-44% for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org
amy walter @amyewalter
Yep. You either fight the tide or swim with it. “Her pivot maps precisely with her constituents in her state’s Nort… https://t.co/dCiM8KStaW