Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Look, if your argument that Dems could hold the House in 2022 is based on the same generic ballot polls that were systemically off in 2020, it's just not that persuasive. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Because Montana employs an independent commission and the tie-breaking member has some Dem ties, there *is* a chance of a map like the one above that makes #MT01 competitive (i.e., a Trump/Bullock '20 district). That said, I still think chances of 2R-0D are greater than 1R-1D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In order for Dems to be remotely competitive in a new #MT01, it would likely need to include all of Missoula, Bozeman, Butte, Helena and Great Falls (below) - and even then, such a seat would've narrowly voted for Trump. https://t.co/YPGa1GdwWF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, there's just one problem for Dems. Because so much of Montana's post-1992 growth has been in the west, Bozeman would now end up *east* of the line if the state were split east/west - splitting up Montana's two biggest Dem vote clusters, leaving both seats red (below). https://t.co/ws31j05EeG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

MONTANA: is set to regain the 2nd district it lost in the 1990 census. Dems are hopeful they could be competitive in a new western district anchored by liberal Missoula & Bozeman - much like in the old, pre-1992 map (below, h/t https://t.co/kEyjWd1Fn0). https://t.co/zi3KPRsNf4 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For our detailed MO analysis & full rundowns of every state's redistricting process be sure to subscribe to @CookPolitical. https://t.co/xxt8l5jm0O https://t.co/4x0UQR7WS8 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, Missouri Rs could also face pressure to get much more aggressive and target #MO05 Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D), whose Kansas City seat isn't clearly protected by the VRA. In the hypothetical 7R-1D map below, all 7 GOP seats would've voted for Trump by 15+ in 2020. https://t.co/s1OTWtAznA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

MISSOURI: per sources, the most likely GOP approach will be a 6R-2D status quo map that shores up #MO02 Rep. Ann Wagner, whose suburban seat (left) went for Trump by just 115 votes last fall. In the hypothetical map on the right, #MO02 would zoom right, to Trump +15. https://t.co/8qGttPzoZR — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @repdonyoung: 🚨🚨🚨I’M MAKING A BIG ANNOUNCEMENT AT NOON TODAY AK TIME.🚨🚨🚨 FOLLOW HERE FOR DETAILS. YOU WON’T WANT TO MISS THIS. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@baseballot OTOH McAuliffe has universal name ID while no one knows who Youngkin is yet — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Things not to say in a concession speech: "And I want to be unequivocally clear, I am going nowhere." (I think this losing #VAGOV candidate actually meant to say they are "not going anywhere") — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BTW, reports of ~510k total votes cast today are wrong. There was a reporting error in Fairfax Co. that added an extra ~15k votes on the NYT/other sites. Now that it's been corrected, we're down to ~480k turnout (8.0%) - a little closer to 2009 than 2017. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2009, turnout in the Dem #VAGOV primary was about 6.4% of all registered voters. With Trump in office in 2017, it spiked to 9.9%. With nearly all votes counted tonight, we're at 8.3% - right in between. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: with more Fairfax and absentee precincts reporting, overall turnout looks a bit higher. Still below 2017, but much closer to 2017 (543k) than 2009 (319k). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Unless there's some type of reporting error, Michelle Lopes-Maldonado (D) appears to have defeated Del. Lee Carter (D) in #HD50. This is Carter's second defeat today. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Over 75% of precincts reporting and 302k votes counted so far. In 2017, turnout was 543k total. We'll see, but I'd say we're on pace for pretty low turnout. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Mayor Justin Wilson (D) defeats former Mayor Allison Silberberg (D) in the Dem primary for Alexandria, VA Mayor. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Elizabeth Bennett-Parker (D) defeats Del. Mark Levine (D) in #HD45. Levine loses both the race for LG and his own delegate seat in one day (sorry, this is my home district). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Mark Herring (D) wins the VA Dem primary for Attorney General, defeating Jay Jones (D). #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Hala Ayala (D) wins the VA Dem primary for Lieutenant Governor. Sam Rasoul (D) finishes second. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

McAuliffe clearly doesn't have a popularity problem w/ VA Dems - he's winning in a romp. The question is whether he has an enthusiasm problem. Despite spending $10M and universal statewide name ID, not a lot of Dems cared enough to turn out. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Jennifer Carroll Foy (D) is on pace to finish a distant second. The presence of Jenn McClellan (D) made it tough for her to gain any kind of media buy-in and make it a competitive two-way race. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Terry McAuliffe (D) wins the Dem primary for #VAGOV. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh, neither side's turnout was especially impressive in the #NM01 special last week (although GOP's was clearly worse). Early signs that voters aren't quite as super-charged w/ Trump out of office. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There were 542,858 votes cast in the 2017 Dem #VAGOV primary. From what I'm hearing, turnout in today's primary is quite a bit lower - even after $20M+ spent. We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, that the #VAGOV Dem primary never turned into a competitive or high-turnout affair suggests some post-2020 voter fatigue. I'd put the over/under for McAuliffe at ~50%, not that it really matters. But he'd rather have a strong showing heading into the fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Maybe you could convince me the chances of the GOP subverting the election in 2024 are overrated—but it's not just a 202… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: The GOP success at gerrymandering state legislatures, with large numbers of districts, should be a reminder that expanding t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@mattmxhn @MapsMetta congrats you figured it out — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Restoring a DOJ preclearance regime (Section 5) would have potentially big redistricting implications, allowing the civil rights division to block discriminatory maps & changes to voting laws (of course, subversion protections arguably even more urgent). — PolitiTweet.org