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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
For the first time, #OH09. — PolitiTweet.org
The Redistrict Network @RedistrictNet
Which congressional district will you be celebrating Thanksgiving in this year?!
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @evanasmith: NEW from @PatrickSvitek: For @BetoORourke, the road to #tx2022 runs through South Texas https://t.co/VuHyp1y9FW #txlege — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Redistricting update: heading into Thanksgiving, maps have either passed or await signature in 20 states. So far, strong/lean Trump districts are up 14% and strong/lean Biden districts are up 8%. Competitive districts? Down 58%. Full story: https://t.co/UxKMnuubqB https://t.co/XqqOBqC2Na — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The part of the Ohio GOP map likeliest to draw scrutiny from the OH Supreme Court? Cincinnati. Hamilton County is blatantly split three ways to dilute Dem votes, even though it has enough people to house a whole district. Wouldn’t be surprised if this map doesn’t stand. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
One of the most intriguing races of 2022 could be #OH09, which is Trump +5 (if the map gets upheld). If any Dem incumbent has deep enough populist appeal to defy a gerrymander, it should be 20-term Toledo Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D). Our initial rating: Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@tencor_7144 This is a mistake that will be corrected soon. Our initial #OH09 rating is Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New from me at @CookPolitical: analysis & ratings for new maps in MA, OH & OK. https://t.co/Me4tnhwQi7 https://t.co/ECfaYu6iJk — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Yeah not exactly the endorsement you’d want in GOP primary in West Virginia. — PolitiTweet.org
Andrew Yang🧢⬆️🇺🇸 @AndrewYang
.@RepMcKinley is a West Virginia Republican Congressman who supported cash relief and the infrastructure bill. He’s… https://t.co/dk2AxG3Mtu
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@celeste43_ Lol I *am* talking legislative not governor — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New (and free) from me at @CookPolitical: in the 20 states w/ approved (or nearly approved) congressional maps so far, closely divided Biden/Trump districts are down 58%. https://t.co/UxKMnuubqB https://t.co/qYD8dtGneD — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@JonYoun36384311 Lol. Ask about my 2020 House ratings... — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In this environment, mostly yes. — PolitiTweet.org
HawksFanForLife @HawksFan7358
@00_morehouse @Redistrict @CookPolitical Because it's Wasserman and he thinks a D+8 district is a toss-up but a Tru… https://t.co/bKq99CzvIT
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Keep in mind, the median 2021 legislative swing from the 2020 presidential margin in both NJ & VA (which are more suburban in character than #IL17) was ~12 pts towards Rs. So if anything, Toss Up is being generous to Dems here. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
We're starting out #IL17 as a Toss Up at @CookPolitical. Why not Lean D? Because Dems gerrymandered it sloppily. With a few minor changes around the edges, they could have drawn it to be Biden +11.6 (left). Instead, they left it at Biden +7.8 (right). https://t.co/NBsVZR1lkM — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Btw, there seems to be a prevailing thought on here that it's #MD05 Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) holding back Dems from pursuing a more aggressive map, which isn't the case at all. Dems' obstacle is (at least) one incumbent from the Baltimore area. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: as expected, South Carolina Republicans propose a 6R-1D map that would shift more Dem precincts around Charleston from #SC01 to #SC06, boosting #SC01 Rep. Nancy Mace (R) from Trump +6 to +9. — PolitiTweet.org
Nick Reynolds @IAmNickReynolds
Inbox: The South Carolina Senate has introduced a draft staff plan of the Congressional maps ahead of the redistric… https://t.co/YeXVrEbBwR
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: Illinois becomes the 18th state to complete congressional redistricting, following newly signed maps in MA, OH & OK earlier this week. It aims to convert IL from 13D-5R to 14D-3R, though #IL17 in particular could still be vulnerable to GOP takeover. https://t.co/5qLTovGC1c — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@DrewSav Incorrect, that's not at all the holdup for MD Dems. The obstacle is a reluctance to shift Annapolis and part of Howard County into #MD01 to make it Biden +15 or more. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
National Dems have been counting on Dem gerrymanders in MD, IL and NY to offset aggressive GOP gerrymanders in GA, NC, OH, and TX among others. But in at least MD, they may not end up w/ anything more than what they already have. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Breaking: Maryland Dem legislators are preparing to advance a modified version of this 7D-0R-1C draft (instead of a pure 8D-0R map) that would leave Freedom Caucus Rep. Andy Harris (R) with a path to victory by excluding blue Annapolis from #MD01. Actual draft coming soon. https://t.co/jXhPdSS5aV — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @allymutnick: We've got our THIRD member-vs-member race of the 2022 cycle Reps Lucy McBath (D) vs Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) in GA Reps Sean… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If you set the thresholds for Biden/Trump at +10, it's a bit clearer Republicans are getting the better end of this anti-competitive deal: Trump +10 or more: 66 ➡️ 80 (+21%) Biden +10 or more: 46 ➡️ 50 (+9%) Biden +10 to Trump +10: 40 ➡️ 25 (-38%) — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Redistricting update: new maps have either passed or await signature in 19 states. The biggest loser so far? Competition. Net seat change, per @CookPolitical: Trump +5 or more: 76 ➡️ 87 (+14%) Biden +5 or more: 52 ➡️ 58 (+12%) Biden +5 to Trump +5: 24 ➡️ 10 (-58%) — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
#TX30 Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) becomes the 16th Dem to forgo reelection in 2022 (very much expected, and a safe Dem Dallas seat). — PolitiTweet.org
Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek
Just in: @RepEBJ announces retirement after current term ends #TX30
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @PatrickSvitek: Just in: @RepEBJ announces retirement after current term ends #TX30 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Not me — PolitiTweet.org
Tyler Buchanan @Tylerjoelb
Re: Ohio redistricting, many cite @davesredist data to study the political leanings of proposed maps Rep. Seitz du… https://t.co/oaiYaQMI3u
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Because it was passed without bipartisan support, it's valid for four years only (hardly a penalty, b/c Rs can just redraw it in four years). The biggest threat to the map, however, is the OH Supreme Court, which must decide if it violates OH's anti-gerrymandering rules. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: Gov. Mike DeWine (R) makes Ohio the 15th state to complete new congressional lines, signing a map that could balloon Republicans' advantage from 12R-4D to 13R-2D in 2022. — PolitiTweet.org
Jackie Borchardt @JMBorchardt
Ohio @GovMikeDeWine has signed the bill establishing congressional districts for the next four years. @lbischoff re… https://t.co/gxmqmIlxE3
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Supreme Court of Virginia to @seantrende and Bernard Grofman today: https://t.co/TjhKzBU0WQ — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @ProfNickStephan: Of note, both @SeanTrende and Grofman have written extensively about measures of partisan fairness. They have no excus… — PolitiTweet.org